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2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

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2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

← 2016 November 3, 2020 (first round)
January 5, 2021 (runoff)
2022 →
Reporting
98%
as of January 9, 2021, 1:08 a.m. EST[1][2][3]
  Raphael Warnock for Senate (cropped).jpg Kelly Loeffler (cropped).jpg
Candidate Raphael Warnock Kelly Loeffler
Party Democratic Party (United States) Republican
First round 1,617,035
32.9%
1,273,214
25.9%
Runoff 2,279,579
50.98%
2,191,836
49.02%

  Doug Collins, Official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Candidate Doug Collins Deborah Jackson
Party Republican Democratic Party (United States)
First round 980,454
20.0%
324,118
6.60%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia General.svg
2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia Runoff.svg
Map key
Warnock:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Loeffler:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100%
Collins:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%

U.S. senator before election

Kelly Loeffler
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic Party (United States)

Template:Elections in Georgia (U.S. state) The 2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia arose from the resignation of Republican Class III Senator Johnny Isakson, effective December 31, 2019. Governor Brian Kemp appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler to serve as Isakson's interim replacement, effective January 6, 2020, and she has held that seat since. The election was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as with other elections to the Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The winner would serve out the balance of Isakson's third term, which ends on January 3, 2023.

In accordance with Georgia law, a primary election for the special election did not take place; all candidates, regardless of party, were placed on the same ballot (known as a nonpartisan blanket primary), and the election was held on November 3, 2020. Democrat Raphael Warnock received the most votes with 32.9%, and Loeffler came in second with 25.9%. As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates advanced to a runoff election, which took place on January 5.[4]

The runoff election was held concurrently with the regular Class II election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue and challenged by Jon Ossoff, which had also advanced to the runoff stage. Following the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats. The two runoff elections decided the balance of the United States Senate under the incoming Biden administration. In the event that the Democrats won both seats, Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris's tiebreaking vote would give the Democrats a majority. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention, both nationwide and globally.

Major media outlets, including Decision Desk HQ, the Associated Press, The New York Times, and NBC News, called the election for Warnock in the early hours of January 6, just minutes after he apparently declared victory. Loeffler refused to concede and initially vowed to challenge the results after she returned from Washington for the electoral vote certification.[5] She later conceded on January 7.[6] By a matter of a few hours, Warnock became the first Democrat to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia since Zell Miller in the 2000 special election. He is the first ever African-American senator from Georgia, as well as the first African-American Democrat from the South to be elected to the Senate.[7] Hours later, Ossoff was called as the winner of the regular Senate election, effectively giving the Democrats control of the Senate.[8][9]

Background[edit source | edit]

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31 due to his deteriorating health.[10] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés in order to be considered for appointment.[11] President Donald Trump advocated the appointment of Rep. Doug Collins.[12] Kemp appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[13]

Candidates[edit source | edit]

Democratic Party[edit source | edit]

Despite the large number of candidates in the special election, by October 4, 2020, the Democratic Party had largely consolidated around Raphael Warnock's candidacy, and had pressured other Democratic candidates such as Matt Lieberman to drop out to avoid vote-splitting.[14]

Advanced to runoff[edit source | edit]

Eliminated[edit source | edit]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Republican Party[edit source | edit]

Advanced to runoff[edit source | edit]

Eliminated[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Libertarian Party[edit source | edit]

Declared[edit source | edit]

Green Party[edit source | edit]

Declared[edit source | edit]

  • John "Green" Fortuin[39]

Independents[edit source | edit]

Declared[edit source | edit]

Special election[edit source | edit]

Polling[edit source | edit]

Jungle primary[edit source | edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Other Undecided
Landmark Communications November 1, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 24% 5% 27% 1% 38% 1%[lower-alpha 2] 3%
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,036 (LV) ± 3% 21% 8% 26% 3% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 3]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 749 (LV) ± 3.5% 27%[lower-alpha 4] 8% 24% 2% 38% 2%[lower-alpha 5]
Landmark Communications October 28, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.6% 23% 9% 25% 1% 37% 2%[lower-alpha 6] 3%
Public Policy Polling October 27–28, 2020 661 (V) 19% 2% 27% 0% 46% 2%[lower-alpha 7] 4%
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (RV) ± 4.4% 18% 4% 21% 3% 41% 7%[lower-alpha 8] 6%
504 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 19% 22% 41%
504 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 20% 22% 42%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 23% 2% 22% 1% 48% 2%[lower-alpha 11] 2%
University of Georgia October 14–23, 2020 1,145 (LV) ± 4% 21% 4% 20% 1% 34% 5%[lower-alpha 12] 14%
Landmark Communications October 21, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 24% 33%
Citizen Data October 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 19% 4% 23% 1% 41% 3% 10%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 27% 12% 20% 2% 27% 2%[lower-alpha 13] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 17% 7% 23% 2% 32% 1%[lower-alpha 14] 18%[lower-alpha 15]
Opinion Insight (R)Template:Efn-ua October 12–15, 2020 801 (LV) ± 3.46% 18%[lower-alpha 16] 3% 19% 1% 31% 14%[lower-alpha 17] 18%[lower-alpha 18]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 5% 20% 2% 41% 0%[lower-alpha 19] 9%
SurveyUSA October 8–12, 2020 677 (LV) ± 5.7% 20% 8% 26% 3% 30% 2%[lower-alpha 20] 12%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 10% 22% 30% 17%[lower-alpha 21]
Public Policy Polling October 8–9, 2020 528 (V) ± 4.3% 22% 3% 24% 0% 41% 2%[lower-alpha 22] 8%
Landmark Communications October 7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 23% 3% 26% 0% 36% 4%[lower-alpha 23] 8%
University of Georgia September 27 – October 6, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 3% 22% 4% 28% 3%[lower-alpha 24] 19%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 25% 5% 21% 2% 38% 1%[lower-alpha 25] 7%
Hart Research Associates (D)Template:Efn-ua September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 21% 8%[lower-alpha 26] 28% 3% 28%
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 22% 9% 23% 4% 31% 0%[lower-alpha 27] 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 23–26, 2020 789 (LV) ± 3.49% 16% 16% 25% 26% 3%[lower-alpha 28] 14%
Monmouth University September 17–21, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 22% 11% 23% 4% 21% 6%[lower-alpha 29] 13%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 23% 11% 23% 3% 23% 5%[lower-alpha 30] 12%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 24% 9% 23% 2% 25% 4%[lower-alpha 31] 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–21, 2020 523 (LV) ± 4.9% 19% 7% 23% 4% 19% 1%[lower-alpha 32] Template:Party shading/Undecided|27%[lower-alpha 33]
University of Georgia September 11–20, 2020 1,150 (LV) ± 4.0% 21% 11% 24% 5% 20% 4%[lower-alpha 34] 16%
Data For Progress (D) September 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 22% 14% 21% 26% 17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies September 12–17, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 19% 15% 26% 21% 5%[lower-alpha 35] 15%
GBAO Strategies (D)Template:Efn-ua September 14–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 19% 11% 29% 5% 25%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research AssociatesTemplate:Efn-ua August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 20% 10% 24% 7% 19% 1%[lower-alpha 36] 19%
Opinion Insight (R)Template:Efn-ua August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 20%[lower-alpha 37] 4% 17% 1% 17% 13%[lower-alpha 38] Template:Party shading/Undecided|27%
HarrisX (D)Template:Efn-ua August 20–30, 2020 1,616 (RV) ± 2.4% 21% 13% 26% 7% 16% 18%[lower-alpha 39]
SurveyUSA August 6–8, 2020 623 (LV) ± 5.3% 17% 13% 26% 3% 17% 2%[lower-alpha 40] Template:Party shading/Undecided|21%
HIT Strategies (D)Template:Efn-ua July 23–31, 2020 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 18% 14% 22% 6% 14% 1%[lower-alpha 41] Template:Party shading/Undecided|23%
Monmouth University July 23–27, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 20% 14% 26% 5% 9% 8%[lower-alpha 42] 18%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 21% 14% 26% 5% 10% 6%[lower-alpha 43] 17%
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 10] 22% 13% 26% 4% 10% 6%[lower-alpha 44] 19%
Spry Strategies (R)Template:Efn-ua July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 20% 23% 19% 9% 20%
GBAO Strategies (D)Template:Efn-ua July 6–9, 2020 600 (LV) 26% 19% 21% 9% 16%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua July 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 26% 15% 17% 5% 10% 2%[lower-alpha 45] Template:Party shading/Undecided|26%
Gravis Marketing (R)Template:Efn-ua July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 26% 11% 24% 9% 18% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 23% 11% 21% 3% 20% Template:Party shading/Undecided|22%
MRG (D)Template:Efn-ua June 18–23, 2020 1,259 (LV) 27% 13% 21% 23% 5%[lower-alpha 46] 12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 14% 12% 6% 18% 4%[lower-alpha 47] 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 19% 17% 18% 9% 11%[lower-alpha 48] Template:Party shading/Undecided|26%
Cygnal (R)Template:Efn-ua April 25–27, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 12% 11% 4% 11% 2%[lower-alpha 49] Template:Party shading/Undecided|31%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.01% 36% 11% 13% 3% 16% 4%[lower-alpha 50] Template:Party shading/Undecided|17%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 24, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 51] 34% 18% 14% 5% 13% 15%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 21, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 52] 32% 19% 15% 5% 12% 18%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 12, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 53] 30% 18% 19% 5% 10% 18%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 7, 2020 1,025 (LV)[lower-alpha 54] 29% 16% 20% 5% 12% 18%
University of Georgia February 24 – March 2, 2020 1,117 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 11% 19% 4% 6% 8%[lower-alpha 55] Template:Party shading/Undecided | 31%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua February 26–27, 2020 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 28% 5% 20% 3% 13% Template:Party shading/Undecided | 31%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)Template:Efn-ua February 17–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 19% 18% 20% [lower-alpha 56] 7%[lower-alpha 57] Template:Party shading/Undecided | 21%
January 30, 2020 Warnock announces his candidacy
January 29, 2020 Collins announces his candidacy
January 10, 2020 Tarver announces his candidacy
McLaughlin & Associates (R)Template:Efn-ua December 16–18, 2019 600 (LV) 32% 42% 11% 16%

Predictions[edit source | edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[60] Template:USRaceRating October 13, 2020
Inside Elections[61] Template:USRaceRating December 14, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] Template:USRaceRating October 8, 2020
Daily Kos[63] Template:USRaceRating October 30, 2020
Politico[64] Template:USRaceRating September 9, 2020
RCP[65] Template:USRaceRating September 27, 2020
Niskanen[66] Template:USRaceRating September 15, 2020
DDHQ[67] Template:USRaceRating October 27, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[68] Template:USRaceRating October 28, 2020
Economist[69] Template:USRaceRating October 28, 2020

Results[edit source | edit]

Since no candidate won a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two finishers—Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock—advanced to a January 5, 2021 runoff election.[70][71]

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia[72]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Raphael Warnock 1,617,035 32.90
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent) 1,273,214 25.91
Republican Doug Collins 980,454 19.95
Democratic Deborah Jackson 324,118 6.60
Democratic Matt Lieberman 136,021 2.77
Democratic Tamara Johnson-Shealey 106,767 2.17
Democratic Jamesia James 94,406 1.92
Republican Derrick Grayson 51,592 1.05
Democratic Joy Felicia Slade 44,945 0.91
Republican Annette Davis Jackson 44,335 0.90
Republican Kandiss Taylor 40,349 0.82
Republican Wayne Johnson (withdrawn) 36,176 0.74
style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (US)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Libertarian Party (US)|Template:Libertarian Party (US)/meta/shortname]] Brian Slowinski 35,431 0.72
Democratic Richard Dien Winfield 28,687 0.58
Democratic Ed Tarver 26,333 0.54
style="background-color: Template:Independent (US)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Independent (US)|Template:Independent (US)/meta/shortname]] Allen Buckley 17,954 0.37
style="background-color: Template:Green Party (US)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Green Party (US)|Template:Green Party (US)/meta/shortname]] John Fortuin 15,293 0.31
style="background-color: Template:Independent (US)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Independent (US)|Template:Independent (US)/meta/shortname]] Al Bartell 14,640 0.30
style="background-color: Template:Independent (US)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Independent (US)|Template:Independent (US)/meta/shortname]] Valencia Stovall 13,318 0.27
style="background-color: Template:Independent (US)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Independent (US)|Template:Independent (US)/meta/shortname]] Michael Todd Greene 13,293 0.27
Total votes 4,914,361 100.0

Runoff[edit source | edit]

The runoff election for Isakson's former seat occurred on January 5, 2021. The runoff election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue was also decided in a January 5 runoff. Prior to the Georgia runoff in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48.[73] Warnock declared victory on January 6, 2021.[citation needed] If Democrats won the other Georgia runoff held on January 5, their caucus gained control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie could be broken by Democratic vice president-elect Kamala Harris. If they lost the second race, Republicans retained Senate control.[74] The high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide.[75][76][77] They were the third and fourth Senate runoff elections to be held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, following runoffs in 1992[citation needed] and 2008.[78] It was also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in 1914 and 1932.[citation needed] The Associated Press and other major news outlets called the race for Warnock in the early morning hours of January 6.[79] Warnock's win was attributed to a heavy black voter turnout in the runoff.[80]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7.[citation needed] Absentee ballots for the runoff election were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[81][82]

Polling[edit source | edit]

Aggregate polls[edit source | edit]

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kelly
Loeffler

Republican
Raphael
Warnock

Democratic
Undecided
[lower-alpha 58]
Margin
270 To Win December 16 – January 3, 2020 January 4, 2021 47.4% 50.2% 2.4% Warnock +2.8
RealClearPolitics December 14, 2020 – January 4, 2021 January 5, 2021 48.8% 49.3% 1.9% Warnock +0.5
538 November 9 – January 4, 2021 January 4, 2021 47.2% 49.4% 2.2% Warnock +2.2
Average 47.8% 49.6% 2.2% Warnock +1.8
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group January 2–4, 2021 1,056 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 48% 2%
AtlasIntel January 2–4, 2021 857 (LV) ± 3% 47% 51% 2%
Insider Advantage January 3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 49% 2%
National Research Inc January 2–3, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46% 9%
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 550 (LV) ± 4% 49% 48% 3%
Targoz Market Research December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 713 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% 0%
1,342 (RV) 48% 49% 3%
AtlasIntel December 25, 2020 – January 1, 2021 1,680 (LV) ± 2% 47% 51% 2%
Gravis Marketing December 29–30, 2020 1,011 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 49% 3%
JMC Analytics and Polling December 28–29, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 54% 1%
Trafalgar Group December 23–27, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Open Model Project December 21–27, 2020 1,405 (LV) ± 4.7% 50% 46% 4%
InsiderAdvantage December 21–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 49% 4%
Mellman Group December 18–22, 2020 578 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 50% 3%
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research December 14–22, 2020 1,027 (LV) ± 4% 42% 43% 15%
SurveyUSA December 16–20, 2020 600 (LV) ± 5.1% 45% 52% 3%
Trafalgar Group December 14–16, 2020 1,064 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% 2%
Emerson College December 14–16, 2020 605 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 48% 1%
Wick December 10–14, 2020 1,500 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
RMG Research December 8–14, 2020 1,417 (LV) ± 2.6% 48% 49% 4%
InsiderAdvantage December 4–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 48% 3%
Baris/Peach State Battleground Poll December 4–11, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 48% 9%
Trafalgar Group December 8–10, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates November 30 – December 4, 2020 1,250 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 47% 7%
Trafalgar Group December 1–3, 2020 1,083 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% 5%
SurveyUSA November 27–30, 2020 583 (LV) ± 5.2% 45% 52% 2%
RMG Research November 19–24, 2020 1,377 (LV) ± 2.6% 46% 48% 6%
Data for Progress November 15–20, 2020 1,476 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 50% 4%
InsiderAdvantage November 16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%
VCreek/AMG (R)Template:Efn-ua November 10, 2020 300 (LV) ± 5.6% 50% 46% 5%
Remington Research Group November 8–9, 2020 1,450 (LV) ± 2.6% 49% 48% 3%
Following the first round of the special election on November 3, 2020, Warnock and Loeffler advanced to the runoff election as the top two candidates.
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 51%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.4% 37% 51% 9%[lower-alpha 59] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 47% 12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% 14%[lower-alpha 60]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 52% 0%[lower-alpha 61] 4%
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 44% 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 49% 8%[lower-alpha 62] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)Template:Efn-ua July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 43% 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 45% 18%[lower-alpha 63] 6%
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 41% 19%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 38% 24%
Hypothetical polling
Loeffler vs. Collins
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Doug
Collins
Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R)Template:Efn-ua July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 28% 34% Template:Party shading/Undecided|37%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 64] 16% 56% 27%
Loeffler vs. Lieberman
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Other Undecided
Data for Progress October 8–11, 2020 782 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 41% 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 39% 17%[lower-alpha 65] 5%
Gravis Marketing (R)Template:Efn-ua July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 44% 18%[lower-alpha 66] 6%
Loeffler vs. Tarver
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 43% 20%[lower-alpha 67] 6%
Collins vs. Lieberman
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 38% 13%[lower-alpha 68] 5%
Gravis Marketing (R)Template:Efn-ua July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 37% 16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 44% 7%[lower-alpha 69] 5%
Collins vs. Tarver
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Other Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 42% 8%[lower-alpha 70] 5%
Collins vs. Warnock
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
Other Undecided
Monmouth University October 23–27, 2020 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 52%
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 23–26, 2020 1,041 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 51% 5%[lower-alpha 71] 2%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2020 506 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 48% 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 13–19, 2020 759 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 45% 14%[lower-alpha 72]
Quinnipiac University October 8–12, 2020 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 54% 0%[lower-alpha 73] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos September 26–29, 2020 969 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 74] 4%
Gravis Marketing (R)Template:Efn-ua July 2, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 38% 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua June 25–26, 2020 734 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 41% 17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos May 16–18, 2020 1,339 (RV) ± 3.1% 44% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 75] 5%
The Progress Campaign (D) May 6–15, 2020 2,893 (LV) ± 2.0% 43% 41% 16%[lower-alpha 76]
Battleground Connect (R)Template:Efn-ua March 31 – April 1, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 36% 15%
The Progress Campaign (D) March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 39% 20%
Loeffler vs. Broun
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Paul
Broun
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 77] 27% 14% Template:Party shading/Undecided| 59%
Collins vs. Abrams
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 78]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Stacey
Abrams (D)
Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D)[1] March 12–21, 2020 3,042 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Loeffler vs. generic opponent
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Someone else Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) December 12–13, 2019 711 (LV)[lower-alpha 79] 26% 30% Template:Party shading/Undecided| 44%
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Quinnipiac University September 23–27, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 49% 3%

Results[edit source | edit]

Template:Election box winning candidate with party linkTemplate:Election box totalTemplate:Election box gain with party link no swing
2021 United States Senate special election in Georgia runoff
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Kelly Loeffler (incumbent)

Election-related lawsuits[edit source | edit]

Republicans filed two federal and one state lawsuit in December to restrict the January 5 vote. On December 17, Judge Eleanor Louise Ross found that plaintiffs lacked standing based on possible future harm to toss out a consent decree regarding signatures on absentee ballot applications. Judge James Randal Hall threw out another case which tried to block the use of drop boxes for absentee ballots. A third lawsuit, to restrict the use of drop boxes, was heard in state court on December 24.[83][citation needed]

On December 18, a federal judge threw out a Republican lawsuit alleging that out-of-state residents were voting in the runoff election, as Republican attorney Bill Price has recommended.[84] Another lawsuit was filed against the use of voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems, alleging that election officials are handling mail-in absentee ballots improperly and illegally.[85]

Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner, sister of Democratic politician Stacey Abrams, of the United States District Court for the Middle District of Georgia rejected the attempted purge of 4,000 voters in Muscogee County and Ben Hill County, Georgia on December 29. The ruling means the voters will be able to participate in the January 5 runoff election.[86] The ruling was amended to allow provisional voting to prevent election-day challenges.[87]

See also[edit source | edit]

Notes[edit source | edit]

Partisan clients
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Slowinski (L) with 1%
  3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. "Someone else" with 2%
  6. Slowinski (L) with 2%
  7. "Someone else" with 2%
  8. "Other candidate" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  9. 9.0 9.1 9.2 With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  11. "Someone else" with 2%
  12. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other Candidate" with 2%
  13. "Someone else" with 2%
  14. Would not vote with 1%
  15. Includes "Refused"
  16. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  17. Bartell (I), Did not vote, Johnson (R), Johnson-Shealey (D) and "Someone else" with 2%; Dien Winfield (D) with 1%
  18. Includes "Refused"
  19. "Someone else" with 0%
  20. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  21. Includes Undecided
  22. "Someone else" with 2%
  23. Fortuin (G), Johnson-Shealey (D) and Taylor (R) with 1%; Bartell (I), Slade (D) and Stovall (I) with 0%; Buckley (I), Grayson (R), Greene (I), Jackson (R), James (D), Slowinski (L) and Winfield (D) with no voters
  24. Slowinski (L) with 2%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  25. "Someone else" with 1%
  26. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  27. "Someone else" with 0%
  28. "Other Democratic Candidate" with 2%; "Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; "Other Republican Candidate" with 0%
  29. "Other candidate" and Slowinski (L) with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  30. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  31. Slowinski (L) and "Other" with 2%
  32. Would not vote with 1%
  33. Includes "Refused"
  34. Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  35. "Other Democratic Candidate" with 3%; "Another Third Party/Write-in" and "Other Republican Candidate" with 1%
  36. Would not vote with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  37. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  38. Johnson-Shealey (D) with 5%; Bartell (I), Dien Winfield (D) and Johnson (R) with 2%; "One of the other candidates" and would not vote with 1%
  39. Slowinski (L) with 5%; Johnson (R) and would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate/still undecided" with 3%; Winfield (D) with 2%
  40. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  41. "Third party candidate" with 1%
  42. "Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  43. "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  44. "Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  45. "Someone else" with 2%
  46. "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  47. "Someone else" with 4%
  48. All other candidates with 5% or less
  49. "Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  50. Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) with 1%; "someone else" with 1%
  51. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  52. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  53. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  54. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  55. Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  56. Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  57. Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  58. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  59. "Someone else" with 9%
  60. Includes "Refused"
  61. "Someone else" with 0%
  62. "Someone else" with 8%
  63. "Someone else" with 18%
  64. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  65. "Someone else" with 17%
  66. "Someone else" with 18%
  67. "Someone else" with 20%
  68. "Someone else" with 13%
  69. "Someone else" with 7%
  70. "Someone else" with 8%
  71. "Someone else" with 5%
  72. Includes "Refused"
  73. "Someone else" with 0%
  74. "Someone else" with 4%
  75. "Someone else" with 6%
  76. Listed as "other/undecided"
  77. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  78. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  79. Likely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election

References[edit source | edit]

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Further reading[edit source | edit]

External links[edit source | edit]

Official campaign websites

Template:2021 United States elections