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2020 California's 25th congressional district special election

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2020 California's 25th congressional district special election

← 2018 March 3 and May 12, 2020 November 2020 →

California's 25th congressional district
  x150px Christy Smith CA Assembly official photo (cropped).jpg
Candidate Mike Garcia Christy Smith
Party Republican Democratic Party (United States)
Percentage 56.00%[lower-alpha 1] 44.00%[lower-alpha 1]

U.S. Representative before election

Katie Hill
Democratic Party (United States)

Elected U.S. Representative

Mike Garcia
Republican

Template:Elections in California A special election to the United States House of Representatives for California's 25th congressional district was held following Katie Hill's resignation on November 3, 2019.[2] The primary was held on March 3, 2020, coinciding with Super Tuesday. Since no candidate received more than 50% of the primary vote, the top two finishers, Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Mike Garcia, advanced to a runoff election held on May 12, 2020. The winner of the special election will finish the remaining balance of Hill's term in the 116th Congress. A separate primary and general election on March 3, 2020 and on November 3, 2020 respectively will determine the representative for the 117th Congress.[3]

On May 13, Smith conceded defeat to Garcia after vote returns showed Garcia in the lead. The results of the special election marked the first time since 1998 that Republicans were able to flip a Democratic-held House seat in California.[4][5]

Background[edit source | edit]

Buck McKeon (R) represented the district from 1993 until he retired in 2014. Steve Knight (R) then won over Tony Strickland (R) in the 2014 election and served until he was defeated by Katie Hill (D) in 2018 by 8.8 percentage points.

In recent presidential elections the district narrowly voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012, while Hillary Clinton (D) won the district by 7 percentage points in 2016.[6]

Hill resigned in October 2019 following a scandal in which she admitted to an "inappropriate relationship" with a campaign staffer and nude photos of her were published without her consent.[7]

On November 15, 2019, the Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, issued a proclamation declaring a special election for the 25th Congressional District on May 12, 2020, with a primary on March 3, 2020.[8]

Candidates[edit source | edit]

California uses a primary system in which all candidates run in a single primary regardless of political party.[9] In regular congressional elections, the top two vote getters in the primary advance to a runoff election regardless of party affiliation or vote tally. However, in the special election for the balance of Hill's term, had a candidate received more than 50% of the primary vote, they would have been automatically elected and the runoff election cancelled.[10]

On October 31, 2019, at least a dozen people had filed paperwork with the FEC to run for the seat.[2] According to the certified list of candidates signed by the Secretary of State of California on January 15, 2020, six Democrats and six Republicans had filed for the special election and would appear on the ballot.[11]

Democratic candidate Christopher Smith ended his campaign shortly after participating in the January 9 debate. While stopping short of a full endorsement, he stated "among the remaining field, the progressive candidate with the best chance of winning is Cenk Uygur."[12]

Democratic Party[edit source | edit]

Declared[edit source | edit]

  • Robert Cooper III, university professor[11]
  • Getro Franck Elize, patient resource worker[11]
  • David Rudnick, businessman, real estate investor, political activist and U.S. Marine Corps veteran[11]
  • Christy Smith, state assemblywoman[11]
  • Aníbal Valdez-Ortega, attorney and community organizer[11]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

Republican Party[edit source | edit]

Declared[edit source | edit]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

Special election[edit source | edit]

The special election and the primary election for the regular general election for California's 25th congressional district was held on March 3, 2020. The normal primary election determined which two candidates would advance to the 2020 general election, while the special election was to determine who will finish the remainder of Hill's term. No candidate in the special election received more than 50% of the vote so the top two candidates advanced to a runoff to be held on May 12, 2020.

Several candidates were on the ballot in both elections on March 3, as these elections concern two different Congresses.[24]

Debates[edit source | edit]

On December 22, 2019, Democratic candidates Christopher Smith, Aníbal Valdéz-Ortega and Cenk Uygur called on Christy Smith, Robert Cooper III and Getro Elize to attend a primary debate "to be held tentatively at College of the Canyons on Thursday, January 9, 2020".[25][26][27] The Talk of Santa Clarita, an interview podcast within the district that hosted a Democratic debate during the 2018 election and has interviewed both Christy Smith and Cenk Uygur,[28][29] also volunteered to host a primary debate for the Democratic candidates on January 25, 2020.[30]

Uygur stated on January 4 that all of the Democratic candidates, with the notable exception of Christy Smith, will attend a debate in Palmdale (at Transplants Brewing Company) on January 9, 2020.[31][37] Despite receiving an offer by the other candidates to change the date of the debate to better accommodate her, Christy Smith's campaign has stated that her work in the State Assembly prevents her from attending the debate, which is set to be moderated by The Talk of Santa Clarita.[38] Christy Smith's campaign has been given several opportunities to debate on different dates at different venues, including future debates unrelated to the Brewing Company debate, but her campaign also declined, with no reasons given.[39]

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Results[edit source | edit]

Results by county:
  Smith—30–40%
2020 California's 25th congressional district special election, March 3[40]
Party Candidate Votes %
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Christy Smith 58,563 36.2%
Republican Mike Garcia 41,169 25.4%
Republican Steve Knight 27,799 17.2%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Cenk Uygur 10,609 6.6%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Aníbal Valdez-Ortega 7,368 4.6%
Republican Courtney Lackey 3,072 1.9%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Robert Cooper III 2,962 1.8%
Republican David Lozano 2,758 1.7%
Republican Daniel Mercuri 2,533 1.6%
Republican Kenneth Jenks 2,528 1.6%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Getro F. Elize 1,414 0.9%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] David Rudnick 1,085 0.7%
Total votes 161,860 100%

Runoff[edit source | edit]

Since no candidate in the March 3, 2020 special election received more than 50.0% of the vote, a runoff election between the top two finishers was held on May 12, 2020.[8]

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Predictions[edit source | edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[41] Template:USRaceRating April 24, 2020
Inside Elections[42] Template:USRaceRating April 23, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] Template:USRaceRating April 23, 2020
Politico[44] Template:USRaceRating April 19, 2020

Polling[edit source | edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Mike
Garcia (R)
Christy
Smith (D)
Undecided
1892 Polling (R) Mar 8–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 43% 39% 10%

Results[edit source | edit]

Template:Election box winning candidate with party linkTemplate:Election box total
2020 California's 25th congressional district special election runoff, May 12.[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Christy Smith 64,671 44.00%

Notes[edit source | edit]

  1. 1.0 1.1 Incomplete results as of May 12.[1]
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients

See also[edit source | edit]

References[edit source | edit]

  1. 1.0 1.1 "U.S. House of Representatives District 25 - Districtwide Results". Secretary of State of California. May 12, 2020. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  2. 2.0 2.1 Dzhanova, Yelena (October 31, 2019). "Rep. Katie Hill says she's quitting the House 'because of a double standard' for women". CNBC. Retrieved October 31, 2019.
  3. "Special election to replace former Rep. Katie Hill set for March 3, California primary day". Los Angeles Times. November 15, 2019. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  4. Foran, Clare (May 13, 2020). "Republicans win back California House seat they lost in 2018 after Democrat concedes". CNN. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  5. Greenwood, Max (May 13, 2020). "Republican flips House seat in California special election". The Hill. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 Cite error: The named reference Daily News Wild Race was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  7. "Katie Hill admits to relationship with campaign staffer after ethics probe announced over separate alleged relationship". CNN. October 23, 2019. Archived from the original on October 24, 2019. Retrieved December 28, 2019.
  8. 8.0 8.1 Padilla, Alex (November 15, 2019). "Governor Newsom Issues Proclamations Declaring Special Elections for 25th Congressional District and 28th Senate District - California Governor". Office of Governor. ca.gov. California: Government of California. Retrieved December 28, 2019. I, GAVIN NEWSOM, Governor of the State of California, do hereby proclaim and order that a special election shall be held on the 12th day of May 2020, within the 25th Congressional District of the State
  9. "Primary Elections in California | California Secretary of State". sos.ca.gov. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  10. Bowman, Bridget (October 28, 2019). "Katie Hill's exit shakes up competitive race in Southern California". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
  11. 11.00 11.01 11.02 11.03 11.04 11.05 11.06 11.07 11.08 11.09 11.10 11.11 11.12 Padilla, Alex (January 15, 2020). "CERTIFIED LIST OF CANDIDATES CD 25 - certified-list" (PDF). ca.gov. State of California. Secretary of State. Retrieved January 15, 2020.
  12. 12.0 12.1 "Documentary filmmaker Christopher Smith suspends congressional campaign". KHTS. January 14, 2020. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  13. Padilla, Alex [@AlexPadilla4CA] (October 30, 2019). "I am touched and humbled by the encouragement I received to run for the 25th Congressional District, but this is not the right time for me to do so" (Tweet). Retrieved October 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
  14. Phoenix, Jess [@jessphoenix2018] (October 27, 2019). "I'm sorry to disappoint everyone here who supported me before & is now asking if I'll run again. I never wanted to run again, & I'm sure the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified their choice of candidate" (Tweet). Retrieved October 27, 2019 – via Twitter.
  15. Bowman, Bridget (October 28, 2019). "Katie Hill's exit shakes up competitive race in Southern California". Roll Call. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  16. "FLURRY OF ENDORSEMENTS CONTINUES TO FALL CHRISTY SMITH'S WAY IN CA-25". us18.campaign-archive.com. Christy Smith for Congress. December 6, 2019.
  17. Smith, Christopher [@Christopher_C_S] (January 14, 2020). "[...] It's been a good run, we had some success in shining a light on issues and policies that will make a difference for #CA25 , but time and name recognition just weren't on my side. I think the time is right to gracefully bow out and make more room for the candidates who [...]" (Tweet). Retrieved January 15, 2020 – via Twitter.
  18. Baskin, Morgan (October 30, 2019). "The Race to Replace Katie Hill in Congress Is Already a Circus". Vice.
  19. Lunetta, Caleb (November 9, 2019). "Former Rep. Steve Knight officially announces bid for congressional seat". Santa Clarita Valley Signal. Retrieved November 9, 2019.
  20. "Are you ready for the Cenk/Cerno debates? CA25 is going to be a mother fucking clash!". @cernovich. November 14, 2019. Retrieved November 14, 2019.
  21. 21.0 21.1 21.2 "CA-25: Rep. Katie Hill (D) Resigns". RRH Elections. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 Garcia, Mike (2019). "Endorsements - Mike Garcia for Congress". electmikegarcia.com. California: Mike Garcia for Congress. Archived from the original on December 12, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
  23. 23.0 23.1 Miller, Devon (November 18, 2019). "UPDATE: Angela Underwood-Jacobs, Mark Cripe Suspend Congressional Campaigns". KHTS AM 1220. Santa Clarita Latest News. Retrieved November 18, 2019.
  24. @judabuzen (November 26, 2019). "I'm voting twice (yes, 2 Times!!!) for @ChristyforCA25 on March 3, 2020 ... Once for the Special Election and Once for the Primary Election !! 👍💙👍" (Tweet). Retweeted by Christy Smith. Retrieved January 3, 2020 – via Twitter.
  25. Uygur, Cenk [@cenkuygur] (December 23, 2019). "Cenk Uygur on Twitter: 'We're calling on @ChristyforCA25 to join us for a debate next month so we can finally have an actual discussion on the issues.'" (Tweet). Retrieved December 24, 2019 – via Twitter.
  26. Smith, Christopher [@Christopher_C_S] (December 23, 2019). ".@christyforca25 @AsmChristySmith The people of #CA25 deserve a #debate. #progress #greennewdeal #medicareforall www.facebook.com/christophersmithforcongress/posts/133776354745024 …" (Tweet). Retrieved December 30, 2019 – via Twitter.
  27. Valdez-Ortega, Aníbal [@AVOrtega3] (December 23, 2019). "The people deserve to have their concerns addressed in a public forum, and the Democratic candidates for CA-25 owe it to them to express their policy and their plan to represent the district. This is an open call for a public debate" (Tweet). Retrieved December 27, 2019 – via Twitter.
  28. Daniels, Stephen (August 1, 2018). "The Talk of Santa Clarita: Episode 103 The 25th Congressional District Primary Debate 4.28.18". Youtube (Videotape). Santa Clarita, California: Radio Free Santa Clarita. The Talk of Santa Clarita. Retrieved January 4, 2020.
  29. Cite error: The named reference TalkofSC Cenk Uygur Interview was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  30. Talk of Santa Clarita [@thetalkofsc] (December 23, 2019). "TalkofSantaClarita on Twitter: '@cenkuygur I am willing to host a debate for the dem candidates on the 25th of January in front of a live audience if all four candidates will commit. Are you in?'" (Tweet). Retrieved December 24, 2019 – via Twitter.
  31. Uygur, Cenk (January 4, 2020). Why Do I Sometimes Oppose Pelosi? Cenk2020.com (Videotape). Castaic, California: Cenk for Congress. Retrieved January 4, 2020. We're doing a debate on January 9, [...] We're gonna do it in Palmdale in the Antelope Valley. And every democrat is coming, uh, oh sorry, except [Christy Smith].
  32. Smith, Christy [@ChristyforCA25] (December 27, 2020). "Hey Fellas- Got your letter. 1. It's Assemblywoman Smith 2. Thanks for the firefighter stamp- proud to have their endorsement 3. Return address not in #CA25?? Supporters- first fundraising deadline 12/31: secure.actblue.com/donate/christysmithforcongress-sm" (Tweet). Retrieved January 4, 2020 – via Twitter.
  33. Uygur, Cenk [@cenkuygur] (December 29, 2020). "All of the Democratic candidates sent a letter to the establishment Dem in the #CA25 race asking her to debate. She said no because she's entitled to the seat. Then added: "Hey Fellas- Got your letter. 1. It's Assemblywoman Smith." I love how she thinks she's Lt. Col. Vindman" (Tweet). Retrieved January 4, 2020 – via Twitter.
  34. Smith, Christopher [@Christopher_C_S] (December 30, 2020). "Why won't @ChristyForCA25 debate? Every other Dem candidate in the #CA25 race will be there, why won't she? Perhaps she's afraid to reveal how little she knows about federal issues or maybe she'll wither under actual scrutiny. Endorsements can't help her #debates ! #progressnow" (Tweet). Retrieved January 4, 2020 – via Twitter.
  35. Valdez-Ortega, Aníbal (2020). "25th District Democratic Debate". valdezortegaforcongress.org. California: Valdez-Ortega for Congress. Retrieved January 7, 2020. Debate of the Democratic candidates for California’s 25th Congressional District. Confirmed attendees: Aníbal Valdez-Ortega, Cenk Uygur, Christopher Smith, Getro Elize. [.../] January 9, 2020 6:30 pm – 10:00 pm Transplants Brewing Company, 40242 La Quinta Ln, Unit 101, Palmdale, CA 93551
  36. Transplants Brewing Company (January 6, 2020). "Defend the 25th District!". transplantsbrewing.com. Palmdale, California. Retrieved January 7, 2020. Join us for the first CA-25 Democratic debate being held right here at Transplants this Thursday at 6:30PM! The following candidates have confirmed their attendance: Cenk Uygur[,] Anibal Valdez-Ortega[,] Christopher Smith for Congress[, &] Getro Elize for Congress[.] We expect a big turnout and media presence, come early and claim your seat!
  37. [32][33][34][35][36]
  38. Martin, Brittany (January 7, 2020). "A CA-25 Debate Will Take Place Thursday–Without the Top Dem in the Race". lamag.com. California. Los Angeles Magazine. Retrieved January 8, 2020.
  39. Bookout, Jed (January 10, 2020). "The Democratic Party's Pick to Fill Katie Hill's Seat Wasn't at Last Night's Debate—but She Still Loomed Large". lamag.com. California. Los Angeles Magazine. Retrieved January 10, 2020.
  40. "Final Official Election Results - Congressional District 25 | California Secretary of State". www.sos.ca.gov. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  41. Wasserman, David (January 24, 2020). "CA-25 Special Election Moves From Lean to Likely Democratic". The Cook Political Report.
  42. Gonzales, Nathan L. (February 21, 2020). "California | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
  43. Kondik, Kyle (April 9, 2020). "The Next Big Special Election: CA-25 – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  44. Shepard, Steven; James, Allan (November 19, 2019). "Who wins 2020? Predictions for California's 25th House District Race". politico.com. Politico. Retrieved December 28, 2019. We think the race for U.S. House in California’s District 25 is a toss-up.

External links[edit source | edit]

Official campaign websites
Public forum with candidates

Template:California elections

Visibility[edit source | edit]

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