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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a seventh term in office. The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020.
Republican primary[edit source | edit]
Candidates[edit source | edit]
Nominee[edit source | edit]
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator[1][2]
Eliminated[edit source | edit]
- Nicholas Alsager[3]
- Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[3]
- Louis Grider, truck driver[3]
- Neren James[3]
- Kenneth Lowndes[3]
- Wesley Morgan, former state representative[4]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
Endorsements[edit source | edit]
Results[edit source | edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 83,181 | 87.40% | |
| Republican | Wesley Morgan | 5,146 | 5.40% | |
| Republican | Louis Grider | 2,195 | 2.30% | |
| Republican | Neren James | 1,480 | 1.60% | |
| Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 1,316 | 1.40% | |
| Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 1,170 | 1.20% | |
| Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 725 | 0.80% | |
| Republican | Wendell K. Crow (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.00% | |
| Total votes | 95,213 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary[edit source | edit]
Candidates[edit source | edit]
- Charles Booker, state representative[7][8]
- Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine[9]
- Maggie Joe Hilliard[3]
- Andrew Maynard[3]
- Amy McGrath, former Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[10]
- Eric Rothmuller, small business owner[11]
- John R. Sharpensteen[3]
- Bennie J. Smith, local business owner[12]
- Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky[13]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
- Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[14] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[15] (remained on ballot)
- Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[16] (endorsed Charles Booker)[17]
- Joshua Paul Edwards[18][5]
- Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[6][5]
- Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[19][5]
Declined[edit source | edit]
- Rocky Adkins, former Minority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[20]
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former Attorney General of Kentucky, and son of former Governor Steve Beshear[21][22][23]
- Steve Beshear, former Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[21]
- Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015[21]
- Adam Edelen, former State Auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[21]
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[24]
- Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former Mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[25]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[21] (endorsed Booker)
- Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)[26][27]
Polling[edit source | edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Charles Booker |
Amy McGrath |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-YangTemplate:Efn-ua | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9%[lower-alpha 2] | 11% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 3] | 3% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | May 2020 | –[lower-alpha 4] | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | April 2020 | –[lower-alpha 5] | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | January 2020 | –[lower-alpha 6] | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
Endorsements[edit source | edit]
Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box
Results[edit source | edit]
Other candidates[edit source | edit]
Libertarian primary[edit source | edit]
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky does not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and will hold its privately-operated primary, open to those who are and remain registered to vote as a Libertarian from January 1 to present in the state of Kentucky,[28] on March 8, 2020.[29] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[30]
Declared[edit source | edit]
- Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[31]
Results[edit source | edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Brad Barron | ||
| style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | None of the above | ||
| Total votes | 100.0% | |||
Reform Party[edit source | edit]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
Independents[edit source | edit]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
- Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for President in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65[33][5]
General election[edit source | edit]
Predictions[edit source | edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[34] | Template:USRaceRating | June 18, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[35] | Template:USRaceRating | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Template:USRaceRating | April 30, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[37] | Template:USRaceRating | June 4, 2020 |
| Politico[38] | Template:USRaceRating | April 19, 2020 |
| Niskanen Center[39] | Template:USRaceRating | April 28, 2020 |
Endorsements[edit source | edit]
Polling[edit source | edit]
- with Amy McGrath
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Amy McGrath (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 15%[lower-alpha 7] |
| RMG Research[lower-alpha 8] | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | 19%[lower-alpha 9] |
| Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua[40] | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)Template:Efn-ua[40] | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | 8% |
- with Charles Booker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Charles Booker (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 38% | 9%[lower-alpha 10] |
Hypothetical polling
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Results[edit source | edit]
Template:Election box total| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | ||||
| style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | TBD | |||
| style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Brad Barron | |||
Notes[edit source | edit]
- Partisan clients
- Voter samples
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Broihier with 4%; Tobin with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
- ↑ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
- ↑ U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress. McGrath is one such candidate
- ↑ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
- ↑ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
- ↑ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
- ↑ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
References[edit source | edit]
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
- ↑ 40.0 40.1 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).