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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a seventh term in office. The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020.
Republican primary[edit source | edit]
Candidates[edit source | edit]
Nominee[edit source | edit]
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator[1][2]
Eliminated[edit source | edit]
- Nicholas Alsager[3]
- Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[3]
- Louis Grider, truck driver[3]
- Neren James[3]
- Kenneth Lowndes[3]
- Wesley Morgan, former state representative[4]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
Endorsements[edit source | edit]
Results[edit source | edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 83,181 | 87.40% | |
| Republican | Wesley Morgan | 5,146 | 5.40% | |
| Republican | Louis Grider | 2,195 | 2.30% | |
| Republican | Neren James | 1,480 | 1.60% | |
| Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 1,316 | 1.40% | |
| Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 1,170 | 1.20% | |
| Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 725 | 0.80% | |
| Republican | Wendell K. Crow (withdrawn) | 0 | 0.00% | |
| Total votes | 95,213 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary[edit source | edit]
Candidates[edit source | edit]
- Charles Booker, state representative[7][8]
- Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine[9]
- Maggie Joe Hilliard[3]
- Andrew Maynard[3]
- Amy McGrath, former Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018[10]
- Eric Rothmuller, small business owner[11]
- John R. Sharpensteen[3]
- Bennie J. Smith, local business owner[12]
- Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky[13]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
- Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[14] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[15] (remained on ballot)
- Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[16] (endorsed Charles Booker)[17]
- Joshua Paul Edwards[18][5]
- Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[6][5]
- Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[19][5]
Declined[edit source | edit]
- Rocky Adkins, former Minority Leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[20]
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former Attorney General of Kentucky, and son of former Governor Steve Beshear[21][22][23]
- Steve Beshear, former Governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[21]
- Jack Conway, former Attorney General of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015[21]
- Adam Edelen, former State Auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[21]
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[24]
- Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former Mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[25]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former Secretary of State of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[21] (endorsed Booker)
- Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)[26][27]
Polling[edit source | edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Charles Booker |
Amy McGrath |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-YangTemplate:Efn-ua | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9%[lower-alpha 2] | 11% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6%[lower-alpha 3] | 3% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | May 2020 | –[lower-alpha 4] | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | April 2020 | –[lower-alpha 5] | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua | January 2020 | –[lower-alpha 6] | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
Endorsements[edit source | edit]
Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box
Results[edit source | edit]
Other candidates[edit source | edit]
Libertarian primary[edit source | edit]
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky does not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and will hold its privately-operated primary, open to those who are and remain registered to vote as a Libertarian from January 1 to present in the state of Kentucky,[28] on March 8, 2020.[29] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[30]
Declared[edit source | edit]
- Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[31]
Results[edit source | edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Brad Barron | ||
| style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | None of the above | ||
| Total votes | 100.0% | |||
Reform Party[edit source | edit]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
Independents[edit source | edit]
Withdrawn[edit source | edit]
- Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for President in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65[33][5]
General election[edit source | edit]
Predictions[edit source | edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[34] | Template:USRaceRating | June 18, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[35] | Template:USRaceRating | April 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Template:USRaceRating | April 30, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[37] | Template:USRaceRating | June 4, 2020 |
| Politico[38] | Template:USRaceRating | April 19, 2020 |
| Niskanen Center[39] | Template:USRaceRating | April 28, 2020 |
Endorsements[edit source | edit]
Polling[edit source | edit]
- with Amy McGrath
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Amy McGrath (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 15%[lower-alpha 7] |
| RMG Research[lower-alpha 8] | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | 19%[lower-alpha 9] |
| Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua[40] | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)Template:Efn-ua[40] | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
| Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | 8% |
- with Charles Booker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Charles Booker (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 38% | 9%[lower-alpha 10] |
Hypothetical polling
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Results[edit source | edit]
Template:Election box total| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | ||||
| style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | TBD | |||
| style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Brad Barron | |||
Notes[edit source | edit]
- Partisan clients
- Voter samples
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ↑ Broihier with 4%; Tobin with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
- ↑ Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Not yet released
- ↑ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
- ↑ U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress. McGrath is one such candidate
- ↑ Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
- ↑ Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
- ↑ Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
- ↑ Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%
References[edit source | edit]
- ↑ Clark, Lesley; Desrochers, Daniel (June 13, 2018). "Mitch McConnell to Kentucky Gov. Bevin: Stay home and run for re-election". The Miami Herald.
- ↑ Beam, Adam (August 4, 2018). "McConnell announces re-elect campaign at Fancy Farm picnic". AP News.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just got two more primary opponents". wdrb.com.
- ↑ Brammer, Jack (May 29, 2019). "Former Kentucky lawmaker challenging Mitch McConnell in GOP primary for U.S. Senate". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. June 2, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 "McGrath running for Senate, hopes to challenge Sen. McConnell in 2020". WKYT. July 9, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ Desrochers, Daniel (January 5, 2020). "Kentucky lawmaker Charles Booker launches bid to unseat Mitch McConnell in 2020". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved January 5, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "Democrat Charles Booker decides on 2020 US Senate bid".
- ↑ Bailey, Phillip (July 18, 2019). "Kentucky farmer, retired Marine wants to challenge Mitch McConnell in 2020 US Senate race". The Courier-Journal.
- ↑ Desrochers, Daniel (July 9, 2019). "Amy McGrath launches campaign for U.S. Senate, paints a target on Mitch McConnell". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved November 8, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "Eric Rothmuller for Kentucky".
- ↑ "Vote for Bennie J. Smith U.S. Senator 2020 – TEAM ONE KENTUCKY".
- ↑ Cooney, Lynnette (January 10, 2020). "See who filed to run on the 2020 Kentucky ballot". www.wymt.com. WYMT | Mountain News.
- ↑ "About the Candidate: Jimmy Ausbrooks – Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky 2020 US Senate".
- ↑ Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky [@jimmy4congress] (May 29, 2020). "I welcome all my supporter to join me in supporting @MikeForKY for the Democratic nomination and together we will #BeTheChange Kentucky deserves!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 29, 2020 – via Twitter.
- ↑ "Home". Steve Cox for US Senate.
- ↑ Steve Cox-KY.US.Sen.Candidate [@StevenCoxUSA] (January 11, 2020). "I'm out of this race. I cant thank those that supported me enough. I love you all & this great state. I'll keep fighting. Mitch is done. Please everyone support Charles Booker. He is the only progressive hope left in this race. youtu.be/-6zgaujqwo8 via @YouTube" (Tweet). Retrieved January 11, 2020 – via Twitter.
- ↑ "17 changes to the candidate list. 2020 Delegate Selection Update: District of Columbia Republican". The Green Papers. November 27, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "FILING FEC-1347619". FEC. Retrieved May 15, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ Desrochers, Daniel (December 2, 2019). "Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration". Kentucky.com. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 Green, J.P. (March 20, 2019). "Can McConnell Be Defeated in 2020?". The Democratic Strategist. Retrieved May 13, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "Beshear set for 'next chapter' as Bevin concedes in Kentucky". AP NEWS. November 14, 2019.
- ↑ "Matt Bevin concedes defeat in Kentucky governor's race". The Washington Post.
- ↑ Bailey, Phillip M. (March 12, 2019). "Amy McGrath vs Mitch McConnell in 2020? Group launches campaign to 'draft' her". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved March 14, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "MATT JONES FOR KENTUCKY EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ Strauss, Ben. "Matt Jones, potential McConnell opponent, says he will not run for Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 16, 2019.
- ↑ "Libertarian Nomination participation criteria".
- ↑ "Libertarian Party of Kentucky 2020 Annual Convention".
- ↑ "Libertarian Party of Kentucky governance documents".
- ↑ "Brad Barron Campaign Website".
- ↑ "Derek Petteys Reform Party for Senate". Retrieved May 15, 2020.
- ↑ "Kentucky Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 30, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ↑ "Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Retrieved April 28, 2020. CS1 maint: discouraged parameter (link)
- ↑ 40.0 40.1 "Kentucky Polls". fivethirtyeight.com. June 28, 2018.
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