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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Template:Country data Kentucky
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
  Mitch McConnell 2016 official photo (cropped).jpg Blank.png
Nominee Mitch McConnell TBD
Party Republican Democratic Party (United States)

Incumbent U.S. senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican



Template:ElectionsKY

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, is running for reelection to a seventh term in office. The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020.

Republican primary[edit source | edit]

Candidates[edit source | edit]

Nominee[edit source | edit]

Eliminated[edit source | edit]

  • Nicholas Alsager[3]
  • Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[3]
  • Louis Grider, truck driver[3]
  • Neren James[3]
  • Kenneth Lowndes[3]
  • Wesley Morgan, former state representative[4]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

  • Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur[3][5] (remained on ballot)
  • Karl Das[6][5]

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box

Results[edit source | edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 83,181 87.40%
Republican Wesley Morgan 5,146 5.40%
Republican Louis Grider 2,195 2.30%
Republican Neren James 1,480 1.60%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis 1,316 1.40%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes 1,170 1.20%
Republican Nicholas Alsager 725 0.80%
Republican Wendell K. Crow (withdrawn) 0 0.00%
Total votes 95,213 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit source | edit]

Candidates[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

  • Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[14] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[15] (remained on ballot)
  • Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[16] (endorsed Charles Booker)[17]
  • Joshua Paul Edwards[18][5]
  • Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[6][5]
  • Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[19][5]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Polling[edit source | edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Charles
Booker
Amy
McGrath
Other Undecided
Garin-Hart-YangTemplate:Efn-ua June 16–18, 2020 32% 42%
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 421 (LV) ± 5.5% 44% 36% 9%[lower-alpha 2] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua June 8–12, 2020 313 (RV) ± 7.0% 39% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 3] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua May 2020 [lower-alpha 4] 13% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua April 2020 [lower-alpha 5] 11% 62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT CommunicationsTemplate:Efn-ua January 2020 [lower-alpha 6] 7% 65%

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Results[edit source | edit]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Amy McGrath 27,668 44.7%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Charles Booker 22,564 36.6%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Mike Broihier 3,900 6.3%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Mary Ann Tobin 2,014 3.3%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Andrew Maynard 1,393 2.3%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Bennie J. Smith 1,117 1.8%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Maggie Joe Hilliard 1,092 1.8%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) 935 1.5%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] John R. Sharpensteen 637 1.0%
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Eric Rothmuller 559 0.9%
Total votes 100.0%

Other candidates[edit source | edit]

Libertarian primary[edit source | edit]

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky does not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and will hold its privately-operated primary, open to those who are and remain registered to vote as a Libertarian from January 1 to present in the state of Kentucky,[28] on March 8, 2020.[29] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[30]

Declared[edit source | edit]

  • Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[31]

Results[edit source | edit]

Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Brad Barron
style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] None of the above
Total votes 100.0%

Reform Party[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

Independents[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

General election[edit source | edit]

Predictions[edit source | edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[34] Template:USRaceRating June 18, 2020
Inside Elections[35] Template:USRaceRating April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] Template:USRaceRating April 30, 2020
Daily Kos[37] Template:USRaceRating June 4, 2020
Politico[38] Template:USRaceRating April 19, 2020
Niskanen Center[39] Template:USRaceRating April 28, 2020

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box

Polling[edit source | edit]

with Amy McGrath
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 53% 33% 15%[lower-alpha 7]
RMG Research[lower-alpha 8] May 21–24, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 40% 41% 19%[lower-alpha 9]
Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua[40] January 17–21, 2020 1,281 (LV) ± 2.8% 41% 41% 18%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)Template:Efn-ua[40] January 8–13, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 40% 17%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 6%
Change Research (D)Template:Efn-ua June 15–16, 2019 1,629 (LV) 47% 45% 8%
with Charles Booker
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Charles
Booker (D)
Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress June 13–15, 2020 898 (RV) ± 3.8% 52% 38% 9%[lower-alpha 10]
Hypothetical polling
with Jim Gray
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Jim
Gray (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing June 11–12, 2019 741 ± 3.6% 49% 41% 10%
with Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 14–15, 2020 1,104 (V) 47% 44% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua Feb 11–12, 2019 748 ± 3.6% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua Aug 15–16, 2017 645 37% 44% 19%
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 31% 62% 8%[lower-alpha 11]
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua Feb 11–12, 2019 748 ± 3.6% 32% 61% 8%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 42% 13%[lower-alpha 12]

Results[edit source | edit]

Template:Election box total
United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent)
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] TBD
style="background-color: Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Libertarian Party (United States)|Template:Libertarian Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Brad Barron

Notes[edit source | edit]

Partisan clients
Voter samples
  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Broihier with 4%; Tobin with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  3. Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. Not yet released
  5. Not yet released
  6. Not yet released
  7. Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  8. U.S. Term Limits is a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress. McGrath is one such candidate
  9. Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  10. Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  11. Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  12. Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

References[edit source | edit]

  1. Clark, Lesley; Desrochers, Daniel (June 13, 2018). "Mitch McConnell to Kentucky Gov. Bevin: Stay home and run for re-election". The Miami Herald.
  2. Beam, Adam (August 4, 2018). "McConnell announces re-elect campaign at Fancy Farm picnic". AP News.
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 "Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just got two more primary opponents". wdrb.com.
  4. Brammer, Jack (May 29, 2019). "Former Kentucky lawmaker challenging Mitch McConnell in GOP primary for U.S. Senate". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved May 31, 2019.
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 "Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State". Kentucky Secretary of State. June 2, 2020. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  6. 6.0 6.1 "McGrath running for Senate, hopes to challenge Sen. McConnell in 2020". WKYT. July 9, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  7. Desrochers, Daniel (January 5, 2020). "Kentucky lawmaker Charles Booker launches bid to unseat Mitch McConnell in 2020". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
  8. "Democrat Charles Booker decides on 2020 US Senate bid".
  9. Bailey, Phillip (July 18, 2019). "Kentucky farmer, retired Marine wants to challenge Mitch McConnell in 2020 US Senate race". The Courier-Journal.
  10. Desrochers, Daniel (July 9, 2019). "Amy McGrath launches campaign for U.S. Senate, paints a target on Mitch McConnell". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved November 8, 2019.
  11. "Eric Rothmuller for Kentucky".
  12. "Vote for Bennie J. Smith U.S. Senator 2020 – TEAM ONE KENTUCKY".
  13. Cooney, Lynnette (January 10, 2020). "See who filed to run on the 2020 Kentucky ballot". www.wymt.com. WYMT | Mountain News.
  14. "About the Candidate: Jimmy Ausbrooks – Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky 2020 US Senate".
  15. Jimmy Ausbrooks For Kentucky [@jimmy4congress] (May 29, 2020). "I welcome all my supporter to join me in supporting @MikeForKY for the Democratic nomination and together we will #BeTheChange Kentucky deserves!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 29, 2020 – via Twitter.
  16. "Home". Steve Cox for US Senate.
  17. Steve Cox-KY.US.Sen.Candidate [@StevenCoxUSA] (January 11, 2020). "I'm out of this race. I cant thank those that supported me enough. I love you all & this great state. I'll keep fighting. Mitch is done. Please everyone support Charles Booker. He is the only progressive hope left in this race. youtu.be/-6zgaujqwo8 via @YouTube" (Tweet). Retrieved January 11, 2020 – via Twitter.
  18. "17 changes to the candidate list. 2020 Delegate Selection Update: District of Columbia Republican". The Green Papers. November 27, 2019. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  19. "FILING FEC-1347619". FEC. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  20. Desrochers, Daniel (December 2, 2019). "Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration". Kentucky.com. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
  21. 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 Green, J.P. (March 20, 2019). "Can McConnell Be Defeated in 2020?". The Democratic Strategist. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  22. "Beshear set for 'next chapter' as Bevin concedes in Kentucky". AP NEWS. November 14, 2019.
  23. "Matt Bevin concedes defeat in Kentucky governor's race". The Washington Post.
  24. Bailey, Phillip M. (March 12, 2019). "Amy McGrath vs Mitch McConnell in 2020? Group launches campaign to 'draft' her". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved March 14, 2019.
  25. Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
  26. "MATT JONES FOR KENTUCKY EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE". FEC. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  27. Strauss, Ben. "Matt Jones, potential McConnell opponent, says he will not run for Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 16, 2019.
  28. "Libertarian Nomination participation criteria".
  29. "Libertarian Party of Kentucky 2020 Annual Convention".
  30. "Libertarian Party of Kentucky governance documents".
  31. "Brad Barron Campaign Website".
  32. "Derek Petteys Reform Party for Senate". Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  33. "Kentucky Senate 2020 Race". Open Secrets. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  34. "2020 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 30, 2020.
  35. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  36. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  37. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  38. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  39. "Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Retrieved April 28, 2020.
  40. 40.0 40.1 "Kentucky Polls". fivethirtyeight.com. June 28, 2018.

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