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2020 United States Senate election in Maine

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2020 United States Senate election in Maine
Template:Country data Maine
← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
  2015 Susan Collins crop.jpg
Nominee Susan Collins (presumptive) TBD
Party Republican Democratic Party (United States)

Incumbent U.S. senator

Susan Collins
Republican



Template:ElectionsME The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is running for reelection to a fifth term in office.

Background[edit source | edit]

Republican Senator Susan Collins is running for a fifth term. Collins has won each election to this seat with a greater victory margin than the one before it. Observers do not anticipate this election to continue that trend.[1][2][3][4] The New York Times's Ideology Tracker considers Collins the most liberal Republican in the U.S. Senate.[5]

Collins was criticized for her decision to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court.[6][7] She also faced criticism from her stance on the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Collins expressed her support for witness testimony in the Senate trial and was the first Republican to do so.[8] Witness testimony did not occur. Collins voted to acquit Trump on both charges of abuse of power as well as obstruction of Congress.[9][10][11][12] Collins said that she voted to acquit because "impeachment of a president should be reserved for conduct that poses such a serious threat to our governmental institutions as to warrant the extreme step of immediate removal from office. I voted to acquit President Clinton, even though the House Managers proved to my satisfaction that he did commit a crime, because his conduct did not meet that threshold."[13] This vote has made Collins's reelection more competitive than usual.

Of the declared candidates on the Democratic side, the one considered most likely to face Collins is Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon.[14] In 2019 Gideon faced an election ethics complaint for breaking a political donation law by accepting reimbursements for her political donations from her own PAC; she later apologized for the reimbursements.[15] Another issue is whether Gideon delayed removing Maine state representative Bates, who was accused of underage sexual misconduct while in office.[16][17]

Party primaries were initially scheduled to take place on June 9, 2020. Governor Janet Mills rescheduled them to July 14, 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mills's executive order also expanded the ability to request absentee ballots, which may now be done up to and on election day.[18] The primaries will be conducted with ranked choice voting. Parties qualified to participate in the 2020 primary election are the Democratic Party, the Green Independent Party and the Republican Party.

Republican primary[edit source | edit]

Candidates[edit source | edit]

Nominee (presumptive)[edit source | edit]

Write-in candidate[edit source | edit]

  • Amy Colter, law office manager[20]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box

Polling[edit source | edit]

Head-to-head matchups[edit source | edit]

Former candidates
with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Derek
Levasseur
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 55% 10% 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Susan Collins and Paul LePage
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Paul
LePage
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 29% 63% 8%
with Susan Collins and Shawn Moody
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Shawn
Moody
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 36% 45% 18%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 35% 55% 10
with Susan Collins and Derek Levasseur if Collins supported impeaching Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Derek
Levasseur
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 37% 24% Template:Party shading/Undecided|39%
with Susan Collins and generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–13, 2019 271 (LV) ± 6% 53% 38% 9%

Results[edit source | edit]

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent)
Republican Amy Colter (write-in)
Total votes 100.0%

Democratic primary[edit source | edit]

On April 20, 2019, attorney and activist Bre Kidman became the first person to announce their candidacy for the Democratic nomination, making them the first ever U.S. Senate candidate who identifies as non-binary.[26] [27] [28] On June 13, 2019, former Maine gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet declared her candidacy.[29] Eleven days later, Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon announced her candidacy, receiving widespread media coverage.[30][31][32][33] A number of other candidates announced their candidacies, including General Jon Treacy and former Google executive and political aide Ross LaJeunesse, who would have been the first openly gay man elected to the Senate. LaJeunesse and Treacy withdrew, with LaJeunesse endorsing Gideon. Two debates were held with all three candidates, while one hosted by WCSH was attended only by Sweet and Kidman.[34][35][36]

Candidates[edit source | edit]

Declared[edit source | edit]

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

Declined[edit source | edit]

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box

Template:Endorsements box

Template:Endorsements box

Polling[edit source | edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sara
Gideon
Betsy
Sweet
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 306 ± 5.6% 64% 17% 19%[lower-alpha 2]
Colby College/SocialSphere [1] February 10–13, 2020 350 60% 8% 33%[lower-alpha 3]

Results[edit source | edit]

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Sara Gideon
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Bre Kidman
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] Betsy Sweet
Total votes 100.0%

Other candidates[edit source | edit]

Green Party[edit source | edit]

Two candidates declared their intentions to run for the Maine Green Independent Party's nomination, but one withdrew and the other left the party to become an independent.

Withdrawn[edit source | edit]

  • David Gibson, solar design specialist (endorsed Savage)[57]
  • Lisa Savage, school teacher[58] (switched to independent)[59]

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box

Independents[edit source | edit]

Seven Independents have declared their candidacy for Senate in 2020, including one affiliated with the Libertarian Party of Maine, which lost ballot access after the 2018 elections.[60]

Declared[edit source | edit]

General election[edit source | edit]

Predictions[edit source | edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[65] Template:USRaceRating June 18, 2020
Inside Elections[66] Template:USRaceRating April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[67] Template:USRaceRating April 30, 2020
Daily Kos[68] Template:USRaceRating June 4, 2020
Politico[69] Template:USRaceRating April 19, 2020
RCP[70] Template:USRaceRating July 2, 2020
Niskanen[71] Template:USRaceRating April 28, 2020

Endorsements[edit source | edit]

Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box

Polling[edit source | edit]

Aggregate polls[edit source | edit]

Sara Gideon vs. Susan Collins
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Sara Gideon Susan Collins Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 4] Margin
Real Clear Politics February 10, 2020 - July 3, 2020 July 14, 2020 45.0% 42.5% Gideon +2.5

Gideon vs Collins[edit source | edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Sara
Gideon (D)
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 2–3, 2020 1,022 ± 3.1% 42% 46% 11%[lower-alpha 5]
Moore Information (R)Template:Efn-ua June 20–24, 2020[lower-alpha 6] 600 ± 4.0% 45% 37% 4%[lower-alpha 7]
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 ± 4.3% 42% 51% 7%[lower-alpha 8]
Tarrance Group/1820 PAC (R) Late April, 2020 [lower-alpha 9] 48% 47%
Public Policy Polling March 2–3, 2020 872 ± 3.3% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 10]
Colby College/SocialSphere [2] February 10–13, 2020 1,008 ± 3.1% 42% 43% 14%[lower-alpha 11]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 52% 35% 13%[lower-alpha 12]
Gravis Marketing June 24, 2019 767 ± 3.5% 52%[lower-alpha 13] 36% 12%[lower-alpha 14]
44%[lower-alpha 15] 30% 26%[lower-alpha 16]
Pan Atlantic Research March 4–13, 2019 500 ± 4.4% 51% 29% 20%[lower-alpha 17]

Sweet vs Collins[edit source | edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Betsy
Sweet (D)
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 ± 4.3% 43% 44% 10%
Hypothetical polling
with Susan Rice
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Susan
Rice (D)
Other /
Undecided
Emerson College October 27–29, 2018 883 ± 3.5% 44% 20% 35%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Victory Geek (D) May 13–18, 2020 512 ± 4.3% 39% 49% 12%[lower-alpha 18]
Colby College/SocialSphere [3] Feb 10-13, 2020 1,008 (LV) ± 3.1% 40% 34% 26%
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 ± 3.2% 41% 44% 15%[lower-alpha 19]
Public Policy Polling October 1–2, 2018 ± 3.3% 42% 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua August 28–29, 2017 501 51% 22% 27%[lower-alpha 20]
with generic Democrat if Collins supports impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 ± 3.2% 32% 38% 30%
with generic Democrat if Collins opposes impeaching Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Susan
Collins (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 11–13, 2019 939 ± 3.2% 40% 47% 13%
on whether Collins deserves to be re-elected
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 38% 55% 7%
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP July 29–31, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42% 15%

Results[edit source | edit]

Template:Election box total
United States Senate election in Maine, 2020
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Susan Collins (incumbent)
style="background-color: Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Democratic Party (United States)|Template:Democratic Party (United States)/meta/shortname]] TBD
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Lisa Savage
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Joshua Arnone
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Tiffany Bond
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Steven Golieb
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Leigh Hawes
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Max Linn
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Danielle VanHelsing
style="background-color: Template:Independent (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | [[Independent (United States)|Template:Independent (United States)/meta/shortname]] Linda Wooten

Notes[edit source | edit]

Partisan clients
Voter samples
  1. 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 19%
  3. Undecided with 31%; LaJeunesse with 0%; "another candidate" with 2%
  4. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. Undecided with 11%
  6. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  7. Savage (I) with 3%; Linn (I) with 1%
  8. Undecided with 7%
  9. Not released
  10. Undecided with 10%
  11. Undecided with 14%
  12. Undecided with 12%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 1%
  13. If the only two candidates were Collins and Gideon
  14. Undecided with 12%
  15. First choice on an RCV ballot if the candidates were Collins, Gideon and VanHelsing (I)
  16. Undecided with 19%; VanHelsing with 7%
  17. "Other" with 12%; Undecided with 8%
  18. Undecided with 12%
  19. Undecided with 15%
  20. Undecided with 27%

References[edit source | edit]

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  2. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  3. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  4. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  5. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  6. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  7. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  8. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  9. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  10. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  11. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  12. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  13. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  14. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  15. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  16. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  17. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  18. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  19. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  20. 20.0 20.1 20.2 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  21. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  22. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  23. 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.7 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  24. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  25. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  26. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  27. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  28. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  29. 29.0 29.1 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  30. 30.0 30.1 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  31. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
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  34. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  35. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  36. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  37. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  38. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
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  41. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  42. https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/S0ME00053/
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  45. 45.0 45.1 45.2 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  46. 46.0 46.1 Cite error: The named reference GideonEndorsements was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  47. 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 47.4 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
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  50. 50.0 50.1 Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
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  67. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  68. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  69. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  70. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  71. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).

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