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2020 United States presidential election in Arizona

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2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
Template:Country data Arizona
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic Party (United States)
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence TBA

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



Template:ElectionsAZ The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Primary elections[edit source | edit]

Canceled Republican primary[edit source | edit]

For further information, see 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries#Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[3] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[4][5] At the Arizona State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party will formally bind all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6]

Democratic primary[edit source | edit]

For further information, see 2020 Arizona Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard.

2020 Arizona Democratic primary

General election[edit source | edit]

Predictions[edit source | edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[7] Template:USRaceRating June 19, 2020
Inside Elections[8] Template:USRaceRating July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Template:USRaceRating June 25, 2020
Politico[10] Template:USRaceRating April 19, 2020
RCP[11] Template:USRaceRating June 22, 2020
Niskanen[12] Template:USRaceRating March 24, 2020
CNN[13] Template:USRaceRating June 25, 2020
JHK Forecasts[14] Template:USRaceRating June 27, 2020
The Economist[15] Template:USRaceRating July 18, 2020
Elections Daily[16] Template:USRaceRating July 20, 2020

Polling[edit source | edit]

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] Margin
270 to Win June 8–29, 2020 July 8, 2020 47.6% 42.8% 9.6% Biden + 4.8
Real Clear Politics May 30 – June 28, 2020 July 8, 2020 47.5% 44.0% 8.5% Biden + 3.5
FiveThirtyEight until June 29, 2020 July 8, 2020 44.7% 44.2% 8.4% Biden + 3.2

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Jul 17–18, 2020 960 (RV) 45% 49% 6%
Spry Strategies Jul 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 345 (LV) 45% 51%
YouGov/CBS July 7–10, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% 4%[lower-alpha 3] 4%
OH Predictive Insights July 6–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% 0%[lower-alpha 4] 7%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 47% 3.3%[lower-alpha 5] 4.2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 311 (LV) (LV)[lower-alpha 6] 44% 51%
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27, 2020 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8–16, 2020 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 7] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15, 2020 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 8] 1%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 201 (LV)[lower-alpha 9] 44% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 10]
Fox News May 30 – Jun 2, 2020 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% 6%[lower-alpha 11] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 329 (LV)[lower-alpha 12] 45% 44% 9% 2%
HighGround Inc. May 18–22, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% 4%[lower-alpha 13] 4%[lower-alpha 14]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% 3%[lower-alpha 15] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% 1%[lower-alpha 16] 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) 46% 47% 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) 46% 47% 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/PoliticoTemplate:Efn-ua Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 46% 46% 8%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 46% 44% 0%[lower-alpha 17] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 ± 3.2% 50% 50%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 43% 45% 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% 4%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49% 7%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46% 7%

Four-way race

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Jo
Jorgensen (L)
Howie
Hawkins (G)
Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies June 14–17, 2020 865 (LV) ± 3.33% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2% 13%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 40% 0%[lower-alpha 18] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 44% 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 45% 43% 0%[lower-alpha 19] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 43% 38% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 37% 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 45% 36% 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) 47% 46% 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 46% 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 34% 1%[lower-alpha 20] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 ± 3.2% 51% 49%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 44% 34% 22%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 46% 37% 16%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 37% 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) 47% 45% 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 41% 1%[lower-alpha 21] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 ± 3.2% 50% 50%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47%
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 44% 43% 13%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 47% 42% 11%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 49% 38% 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)Template:Efn-ua Jan 24–25, 2019 682 ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

See also[edit source | edit]

Notes[edit source | edit]

Partisan clients
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  4. "Refused" with 0%
  5. "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  6. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  7. "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  8. "Someone else" with 5%
  9. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  10. "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  11. "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  13. "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  14. Includes "refused"
  15. "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  16. "Refused" with 1%
  17. Refused with 0%
  18. Refused with 0%
  19. Refused with 0%
  20. Refused with 1%
  21. Refused with 1%

References[edit source | edit]

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  11. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  12. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  13. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  14. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  15. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).
  16. Lua error in ...ribunto/includes/engines/LuaCommon/lualib/mwInit.lua at line 23: bad argument #1 to 'old_ipairs' (table expected, got nil).

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